The Mathematics of Sports Betting
When you understand the basics of mathematics, you can use that knowledge to your advantage in sports betting. You can calculate probability and payouts, for example, and you can use data and statistics to find positive expected value bets. You can also build strategies by using bonuses to your advantage and understanding how to best use bonuses.
Sports betting can be a complex game, with many branches and sub-branches. If you want to make the most of your sports betting experience, then it’s important to understand how the odds work. To do this you need to learn how the bookmakers work and how they calculate your payout.
If you have a question about the odds of an outcome, or how much you will win or lose, you can use mathematics to work out the answer.
This is helpful if you have a limited budget and want to be sure you aren’t risking too much. For example, these examples show how you can use it to figure out how much you should bet to see a specific return.
Fractional odds tell you how much money you will win if an outright winner wins the tournament. If you bet on the outcome of an outright winner and the odds are 1 to 1, then your fractional odds are 10%.
- N. Djokovic – 1/4 – 1.25
- C. Alcaraz – 4/11 – 1.36
- A. Murray – 5/1 – 6.00
- S. Tsitsipas – 9/1 – 10.00
It’s possible to make £/€/$4 per £/€/$4 you put on Djokovic, or £/€/$1 per £/€/$11 you put on Nadal. If you bet £/€/$1 on Murray, you’ll get back £/€/$5 if he wins and your stake at that point; betting £/€/$1 on Tsitsipas will bring you a £/€/$9 profit if he does well.
You can also make calculations for decimal odds. For example, if you bet £10 on Djokovic and he wins, you win £2.50 (£6.00 x £10) – £10 = £50.
How The Bookmaker Operates
Before you decide to use mathematics to help you win more money, you should understand that the bookmaker plays a role in every bet. Even if you use a betting exchange, you’ll still need to pay commission or payout for losing.
Bookmakers set up odds and margins of profit so they have an edge over the players. They make a living at it; they wouldn’t be in business very long if they didn’t make a profit. You might also see bookies changing their odds or shifting them around to encourage bets on different outcomes.
In mathematical terms, a bet with two possible outcomes that are evenly matched would be considered evens or 1/1 odds for each team. You might see odds of 9/10 or 10/11, which is less than even to create a margin for the bookmaker.
It is important to understand the difference between winning and losing with a bet. You should also consider how much you bet on each race. This will help you find the best bookmakers, which can lower your margin.
Sports Betting Probability
When you understand that all bookmaker bets have a margin, you can use math to calculate the implied probability of your favorite sports team winning. This guide will help you.
Odds calculators and conversion formulas can help you understand odds and probability. However, if you prefer to understand these concepts as fractions or decimals rather than a combination of both, some formulas will give you the answers either way.
If you wanted to bet on a football match, you might see this kind of contract:
|Liverpool FC vs Tottenham||4/9||9/1||4/1|
If you want to know the probability of each outcome, you can use this formula.
- To find the probability that Liverpool wins, we multiply 9 / (9+4) by 100.
- 1/9 x 100 = 10% probability of a draw.
- The probability that Tottenham will win is 20%.
The fractional odds are used to make a calculation, which can be used to determine which team is the bookie’s favorite or how likely a draw is. For example, if there were decimal odds of 1.44, 10 and 5, the formula would be (1/5) x 100 = 20% probability for Tottenham to win.
Finding Value Bets
Once you understand the math behind sports betting and statistics, you can build a strategy that suits your needs.
Matched betting lets you bet on two events at the same time, so that you make money if they both win. You need to calculate your payouts for the lay bet and the back bet so you have a good chance of making two selections for the same event that guarantee a profit.
When making a prediction of the outcome of an event, it is important to include information and mathematics. Using this information, you can calculate the probability of each possible outcome. Then you can compare this to the implied probability of the bookmaker and odds in order to see whether your predictions have a higher probability. If they do, then it makes sense to bet on that outcome.