Which Games are better to bet on in Bookmakers?
Which Game Is Better to Choose When Wagering in Bookmakers?
Regardless of your background, one thing all gamblers look for is a way to bet responsively and with a lower risk. At the end of the day, this is why we need to look for ways to bet responsibly.
However, finding the sports and games that offer you lower risk is not as easy as it seems.
Today, we’ll talk about how to find the best bets in bookmakers.
Return of Investment in Sports Betting
Most sports gamblers are using strategies to increase their odds of winning. They keep a close eye on their ROI, or Return on Investment. In business terms, return on investment is a key concept used when discussing any business in general.
Return on investment is a measure of how much your funds can earn for you. For example, if you open a bakery and it costs £/€/$1 million to get started, and it produces £/€/$150,000 per year, that’s a 15% return on investment. You can do the same maths with sports betting.
You can avoid negative ROI by planning your wagers, choosing the best games to bet on in the bookies and sticking with one bookie.
It is rare, though not impossible, for a gambler to achieve such high success. You must be better than the average gambler in several areas to have a good chance of achieving this. To improve your ROI and become one of the few who do, you will need to learn how to analyze gambling events, how to bet on them intelligently and with skill and insight. This is hard work at first but can be mastered over time by anyone who puts in the effort.
Before you begin betting, you should narrow down your selections. The best analysts are those who have a broad knowledge of the sport they’re analyzing. You need to have a deep understanding of history if you want to make informed selections.
To gamble responsibly, you need access to superior information.
It’s important to have a detailed understanding of your team’s possible line-ups and alternative plans. Follow the doctors on Twitter to find out what they’re saying about new injuries. Check out some player’s Instagram feed; they might mention hangovers in a post or two. Track the weather forecast for half a dozen regions every week to ensure that you have in mind what conditions are like when your team is playing away from home.
So, in order to lower your risk when wagering in bookmakers, you’ll need to become a specialist of something. The exact type of expert you’ll become is up to you. At all events, keep in mind that professional bookmakers base their values on the analysis and expertise of people who monitor the respective game very closely.
Bookmaker Betting Markets
If you want to improve your odds, consider betting on the bookmakers’ favorite markets. No one betting market beats the rest. That wouldn’t be in the interest of bookmakers.
Of course, there are many different betting markets and many strategies to choose from, but individual players can definitely get a better return on investment by betting on certain betting markets rather than others.
A bookmaker that offers different betting markets uses the same data to produce them all. As a result, you’ll rarely find a selection under or overvalued just by one market. However, certain markets are more difficult to play than others.
Straightforward markets, such as straight bets, are easier to understand. More complicated ones – such as special and multiple bets – can be more difficult to grasp.
If you want to bet responsibly, don’t bet more than you can handle. It’s important to have plenty of information and a good understanding of the markets you’re betting on. You’ll make more money in the long run if you avoid betting markets that you aren’t familiar with.
If you’re serious about gambling responsibly, you’ll need to get more familiar with statistics. We recommend that you look at our detailed guide on how to use statistics in sports betting. These concepts will help you understand your odds and lower your risk. Let’s go over some of the most important concepts.
Implied probabilities are the odds that an event “should” have. For example, if a bookmaker shows you odds of 2/1 (3.0), the implied probability is 33%. Every time you see odds on a betting slip, it’s telling you an implied probability.
To calculate the probability implied by a series of odds, simply divide the decimal odds by the fractional odds. For example, if the fractional odds are 1/5, then the decimal odds are 0.2; the inverse would be 0.83 (83% implied probability).
For example, let’s take a 50/1 bet. Convert it to decimal and you get 51.0. The inverse is 1/51, or 0.0196, or 1.96%.
Here’s what you should take away from this: odds don’t exist in a vacuum. They correspond to real-world probabilities on events, as estimated by bookies. So if you want to win money consistently, you’ll need to identify those times when bookies are underestimating the odds of an event.
Expected values are a useful tool for assessing bets. They refer to the average result of placing identical bets over time. To calculate expected values, use this formula:
The expected value formula: (Stake x Odds x Implied Probability of Win) – (Stake x Implied Probability of Loss).
Let’s consider an example of football odds. You have a $50 wager on a home team playing against a draw or away team; your implied probabilities are home 12.5%, draw 23.1%, away 75%. The sum of these probabilities is 110.6%. That extra 10.6% is the house edge, which keeps bookies in business.
- Home: 50 x 8 x 0.125 = 0.95
- Draw (50 x 4.33 x 0.231) = 6.26
- Away from home (50 x 1.33 x 0.75) – (50 x (0.125+0.231)) = 32.08
In this case, all three selections have positive EV’s. That’s good for your bankroll. The higher the EV, the better your selection. In the long run, you can expect a £50 Away bet to result in £32.08 profit.
In reality, you won’t usually find wagers with such high EV. The sharper the odds, the more competitive a market is. You’ll need to search long and hard to find a balance between probability and EV. However, some of the bookmakers known for their high odds also offer implied odds, which aren’t real probabilities.
If you want to calculate the house edge on a sports bet, you’ll need to consult an analyst. Many gamblers develop their own spreadsheets to track historical data.
One way to find value bets is to use statistical analysis and models. Or you can consult experts, who can give you more accurate estimations of the probability that a bet will win. This allows you to identify bets where others won’t, increasing your returns.
Ultimately, that’s how you bet responsively and with a better edge in bookmakers. By having an eye for the games, you’re able to learn about them – and that knowledge is invaluable when it comes time to play.
The Dos and Don’ts of Betting in Bookmakers
Now that you know how to work with the odds, probabilities and EV, let’s summarize what we’ve learned in a few key tips.
- To be successful, it is important to research the sport, leagues and markets you will be betting on.
- Do you know what you’re talking about when it comes to statistics and probabilities?
- Learn how to calculate your electric vehicle’s energy consumption, or use tools to help you do it.
- Compare your estimated probabilities to the implied probabilities.
- Make uninformed bets
- Bet on the markets that are more complex and interesting to you.
- Follow your gut
Before you start searching for the best games to bet on, remember this: No matter how much the numbers back your bet, nothing is written in stone. There are no guarantees that your strategy will work in the short run.
Using tools to identify the best games gives you a tremendous edge. However, variance will always be a factor. Drawdowns will happen, and they can put your bankroll to the test. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, but if you do, it’s best to bet on the best games over a long enough timeline.